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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 75

Washington Commanders 6 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 5-T.Way punts 63 yards to CAR 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore to CAR 23 for 11 yards (22-D.Everett).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model