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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to WAS 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-18-D.White. PENALTY on CAR-18-D.White, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 38, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model