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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 43

Washington Commanders 6 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to CAR 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-38-S.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.27 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.36 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP