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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 60

Washington Commanders 15 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to CAR 2, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 12-D.Moore pushed ob at CAR 18 for 16 yards (88-H.Hentges).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model