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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 15

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to WAS 1, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-18-D.White.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 43, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model