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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 81

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to WAS 39, Center-44-J.Jansen. 15-S.Sims to WAS 45 for 6 yards (56-J.Carter).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 38, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model