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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 14 – Washington Commanders 29

What Actually Happened

(3:45) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short left to 22-C.McCaffrey to WAS 36 for 15 yards (20-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.56 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 51, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model