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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 21 – Washington Commanders 29

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at WAS 26 for -23 yards (50-C.Odom). FUMBLES (50-C.Odom) [50-C.Odom], RECOVERED by WAS-54-N.Orchard at WAS 31. 54-N.Orchard to WAS 31 for no gain (72-T.Moton). PENALTY on WAS-23-Q.Dunbar, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.79 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.80 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model