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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 7

Washington Commanders 0 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.38 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model