Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 41

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal. PENALTY on BAL-16-D.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at BAL 8. Penalty for signaling fair catch, but subsequently making block.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP

KICK -0.61 EP

40% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model