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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 29

Buffalo Bills 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.03 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model