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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 9 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.94 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 38, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model