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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 45

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:43) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model