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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(:31) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP