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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 90

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to BUF 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-P.DiMarco.

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.14 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 90, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model