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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to BAL 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 33 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model