Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 16 at the 73

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

(1:40) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 31 for 15 yards (28-J.Richards).

The Three Options

GO -2.46 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model