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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 9-R.Allen punts 37 yards to CAR 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 14-G.Dortch.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.32 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP