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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 70

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 9-R.Allen punts 50 yards to CAR 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 14-G.Dortch to CAR 30 for 10 yards (54-F.Oluokun; 30-Q.Ollison).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.87 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model