4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 7-Y.Koo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen. Kick hit the right upright and went through.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.15 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model