Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

(9:25) 5-M.Palardy punts 50 yards to ATL 26, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-56-J.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model