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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 28

Carolina Panthers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 4-J.Slye 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.26 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model