Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 87

Cleveland Browns 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to CIN 33, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 24-D.Phillips to CIN 40 for 7 yards (57-A.Taylor; 25-D.Hilliard). PENALTY on CIN-17-S.Morgan, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CIN 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.53 EP
52% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 87, worth -4.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model