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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 13 at the 16

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.04 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model