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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 13 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard to CLE 2 for 1 yard (21-D.Ward; 53-J.Schobert).

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 3, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model