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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 35

Cleveland Browns 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(:20) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.93 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP