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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 16

What Actually Happened

(1:09) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +2.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 23, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model