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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 26

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model