Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(7:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 48 yards to CHI 24, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-T.Cohen MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 24. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 33 for 9 yards (23-D.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.91 EP
64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model