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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 65

Chicago Bears 24 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 49 yards to DAL 16, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.25 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model