Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 24

(4:31) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to CHI 35, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 46 for 11 yards (83-V.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.87 EP
63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model