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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 47

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 13-M.Gallup to CHI 26 for 21 yards (22-K.Toliver).

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model