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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 2

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Chicago Bears 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 75-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 21-E.Elliott right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 2, worth +0.38 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model