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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 58

Houston Texans 17 – Denver Broncos 38

What Actually Happened

(8:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 10-D.Hopkins to DEN 39 for 19 yards (25-C.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.44 EP