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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 60

Denver Broncos 38 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 6-C.Wadman punts 47 yards to HOU 13, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 14-D.Carter to HOU 21 for 8 yards (84-T.Fumagalli). Punt Hangtime: 4.2s

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model