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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 59

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(:40) 9-B.Anger punts 41 yards to DEN 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 20 for 2 yards (41-Z.Cunningham, 38-G.Howell). Punt Hangtime: 4.28s

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.21 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model