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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 8-R.Sanchez punts 51 yards to TB 25, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 17-J.Watson pushed ob at TB 21 for -4 yards (20-J.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model