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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 3

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles left tackle to TB 1 for 2 yards (58-S.Barrett).

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.26 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model