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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 55

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Indianapolis Colts 27

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to IND 9, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines to IND 24 for 15 yards (79-P.O'Connor).

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model