4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to TB 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 17-J.Watson.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP