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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 14 at the 29

Indianapolis Colts 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 5-C.McLaughlin 47 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.78 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model