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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 16

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 – Indianapolis Colts 35

What Actually Happened

(4:38) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 44-D.Ogunbowale to IND 12 for 4 yards (26-C.Geathers).

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.81 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model