4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 35 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 7-J.Brissett. 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left. Penalty on IND-7-J.Brissett, Illegal Forward Pass, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.73 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model