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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 33

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 39-S.Ware up the middle to NE 31 for 2 yards (71-D.Shelton; 53-K.Van Noy).

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model