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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.48 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP