Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 81

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

(7:28) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to KC 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-M.Hardman to KC 44 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater, 34-R.Burkhead).

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.86 EP
70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 81, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model