Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – New England Patriots 16

(5:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NE 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.01 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model