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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 41

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to KC 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-M.Hardman to KC 17 for 9 yards (51-J.Bentley). NE 7-Bailey 32nd punt inside 20, new single-season franchise record.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.20 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model