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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 5

New England Patriots 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Edelman (21-B.Breeland).

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.57 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.37 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model