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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 23

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 2-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-T.Kpassagnon), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey, RECOVERED by KC-35-C.Ward at KC 35. 35-C.Ward to KC 42 for 7 yards (58-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.69 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model